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Abstract -- Assuming that we will phase-out importing oil in 10-20 years, we asked ourselves how much fuel to produce locally from clean electricity or bio-mass, and estimated the involved cost of alternatives.
Based on comparing such alternatives, we conclude that our long-term energy (electricity and fuel) security and independence strategy should be install as many clean and lowest-cost electricity generators as possible, but, besides feeding the grid system, electricity should be used only to either:
1. Directly charge EVs and E-boats or
2. Directly charge emergency or long-term (months) electricity storage systems (batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air and fuels), but
3. Limit fuel production for emergency road and marine transportation; regular jet transportation; and for emergency generators, but certainly not for CVs to continue to operate with today’s IC engines.
(To see a full pdf document, click |here|.
This has implications on how much synthetic fuel to produce. For Hawaii County, two to three 10-15 MGGE/y (synthetic or bio-) fuel plants should take care of Hawaii County’s foreseeable jet fuel needs***. The remaining added generator investment for this County to replace today’s 120-150 MGGE/y of fuel for CVs, would then decrease from ~1200 MW(average) clean generators, to 120 MW(average) to simply and more efficiently charge EVs, after over 95% of all vehicles convert to EVs in the next 15-20 years. This time fits well with the needed ~10-year time to study, get permits, design and install 10-15 MGGE/y plants, after which they would produce for another 20-25 years, while the produced fuels are certified for aviation use, and cars and boats phase out of hydrocarbon fuels and into battery-powered equipment
*** Similarly, 150-200 MGGE/y should meet the needs for the State of Hawaii, rather then having to replace the total amount of ~750 MGGE/y consumed today.
Questions -- With such a strategy, one might do well to be prepared to answer questions like these:
1. How can one expect to find customers willing to drive EVs with only ~100 miles with one charge? A.: Over the next 10-20 years, that 100-mile range is likely to expand to 300 or 400 miles, as battery technology advances, battery costs drop and (most importantly) also car weight drops, thanks to the use of lighter composites. Think of the 2500 MPGs (60-80 miles/kWh) achieved by cars in the 2011 Shell EcoMarathon[2]; we would only need 5-10 kWh batteries (not 40 kWh as in the Tesla) to achieve a 350-mile range.
2. Why bother with synthetic H2 via electrolysis, if we could simply capture the gas coming out of our land-fills, which is now just wasted and flared? A.: The amount we could draw from land-fills would only be like a drop in a big bucket. On top of that, it may also cost more to purify and make H2 from it than starting with clean water.
3. Is it realistic to assume that EVs and PHEVs will increase market share in Hawaii, in view of their high cost, small range and long-time to re-charge? A.: As mentioned above and demonstrated with the cars in the 2011 Shell EcoMarathon[2] and the huge MPG savings with lighter cars[3], we expect that while the cost of EVs comes down, their miles/kWh will increase due to weight reduction and the charging time will also come down due to smaller batteries and improved technology. Boat mileage might also improve as more light-weight materials are used, but may take more time to change.
Acknowledgments – The author is most grateful for the encouragement and many helpful discussions with Guy Toyama, Arne Laven, Chester Lowry and John Holbrook, without which this paper would not have been conceived and written.
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